Cordoba, Buenos Aires Argentina Need Greater Rain

By Andrew Owen

Kansas City, December 2 (World Weather Inc.) – Rainfall in Argentina during the past week was mostly beneficial for summer crop development. However, portions of Cordoba and Buenos Aires did not get enough rain to counter the week’s evaporation leaving an important drying trend in place. Crop stress may evolve soon across these drier biased areas by the end of next week if significantly greater rain does not evolve. Some showers and thunderstorms are expected late this weekend and early next week, but early indications suggest the rain will still be lighter biased raising concern over crop health and production potentials for later this month. World Weather, Inc. believes greater than  advertised rainfall “may” impact parts of both regions during the coming week to ten days and if correct the precipitation would not fix all of the moisture deficits, but it will buy a little more time before production is threatened for at least some areas.

Rainfall varied across Argentina during the past week. Areas from Santiago del Estero and southern Chaco through much of Santa Fe, Entre Rios, and Corrientes reported 1.25 to 3.00 inches of rain for the seven-day period Thursday morning. Northern La Pampa and southern Cordoba reported 0.65 to nearly 3.00 inches of rain as well. The remaining portions of Cordoba through northern Buenos Aires received 0.50 to 1.65 inches. Rainfall in southern Buenos Aires and areas in central Cordoba was too light to counter evaporation in most areas.

The ground is saturated in several portions of Entre Rios, Santa Fe, Chaco, and immediate neighboring areas due to the recent precipitation. Fieldwork may have been delayed at times and several areas may need several days of dry weather before getting back into the fields. A few locations in northern La Pampa also have abundant moisture. Central and southern Santiago del Estero, much of Cordoba outside the south and the southern half of Buenos Aires have short to very short topsoil moisture. Topsoil moisture elsewhere is rated adequately. Subsoil moisture is most limited in Santiago del Estero, Cordoba and southern Buenos Aires due to the extended period of dryness earlier in November.

Corn and cotton planting, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture should be near completion in much of Argentina by the end of November. However, the last crop report from the Argentina Agricultural Ministry on Nov. 24 suggested corn planting was just 48% completed. Soybean, rice, sunseed, groundnut, and sorghum planting normally continues into December and may extended into January. As of late last week, rice planting was 96% done, sunseed was 88% complete and soybean planting was 39% complete while peanut planting was 61% completed while sorghum was 29% done. Much of the planting was running a little behind the usual pace at that time.

Crop conditions vary due to the erratic rainfall in November, though much of the crop established under favorable conditions. Buenos Aires, Cordoba, and Santiago del Estero will have the greatest need for rain in the coming weeks to limit drying and promote aggressive growth. Other production areas have enough moisture in the soil to promote aggressive growth through the first ten days of December.

Winter wheat harvesting has advanced normally in recent weeks with 15% of the crop out of the ground compared to 16% last year. Periods of rain in some locations likely slowed the harvest, but only for brief periods of time. None of the recent rain has threatened grain quality, although there has been some concern of that in a few areas.

Rainfall will vary across Argentina through the end of next week. Areas from Santiago del Estero and Chaco through Corrientes and northern Santa Fe will see several waves of rain that will help keep soil moisture near current levels. Rain totals through next Friday morning will range from 0.75 to 3.00 inches with locally greater amounts. Chaco and Formosa will receive the greatest rain and a net boost in soil moisture will result in several areas.   La Pampa and extreme western Buenos Aires will also receive enough rain to keep soil moisture rated favorably. Central and southern Cordoba, southern Santa Fe, Entre Rios, and the remainder of Buenos Aires will all trend drier than normal. Much of the rain that falls will be too light to counter evaporation or impact long-term soil conditions and temperatures will trend near to above average. The drier biased trend may last into mid-month.

            The warm weather and lack of rain will significantly firm up the soil from central and southern Cordoba through Buenos Aires. Crop growth will be slowed and increasing plant stress will evolve over time. Summer crop establishment and growth conditions will remain mostly favorable in the remaining production areas. Planting progress will advance slowly at times in northern Argentina due to the rain.

Winter wheat harvesting will advance swiftly in much of southern and central Argentina with exceptions for La Pampa. Many producers will be able to get into the fields on a near daily basis with only a few weather-related disruptions.

World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Comments regarding damage or the impact of weather on agricultural and energy as well as comments made regarding the impact of weather on the commodity and financial markets are the explicit opinions of World Weather, Inc. World Weather, Inc. can not be held responsible for decisions made by users of the Corporation’s information in any business, trade or investment decision.

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