South Africa Still In Need Of Better Rainfall

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By Andrew Owen

Kansas City, December 2 (World Weather Inc.) – Rainfall was erratically distributed across the main production areas in central and eastern South Africa in the most recent seven days. Many areas only received light rain that was generally lost to evaporation. The ground is still too dry to support the best development conditions in much of the region and rain is needed in the near future. After a brief period of mostly dry conditions today and Saturday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will return on a frequent basis Sunday and most days next week. The rain will help alleviate some of the dryness, but will be unable to completely fix the moisture deficits. Northern Cape and western portions of both Free State and North West have been especially dry in recent weeks and the need for rain is extremely highs. However, relief for these driest areas is still at least a full week away and perhaps longer.

Precipitation was scattered across Natal, Mpumalanga, Limpopo, eastern Free State, and portions of North West during the past week. Moisture totals for the seven-day period ending this morning ranged from a trace to 2.16 inches with local amounts up to 3.70 inches in northern Natal. Pockets in Eastern Cape also received up to 0.25 inch of rain. The remaining production areas were dry. Temperatures were often above average during the past week with daytime highs peaking into the 80s and 90s Fahrenheit. Several areas from Northern Cape through Limpopo frequently warmed above 100 degrees as well while portions of southern and eastern South Africa only warmed into the 70s.

Corn, soybean, peanut and sunseed planting should have advanced swiftly around the rainfall in recent weeks. Planting normally continues through the end of December in much of the country. Cotton planting should be complete, although pockets in Northern Cape and a few areas to the immediate east may be waiting for better rainfall before finishing this year’s fieldwork. Insurance coverage dates may have already been surpassed for cotton planting and that may limit the amount of any new planting that takes place after significant rain falls.

Rain in November was reported frequently, but the amounts in the latter part of the month were often below average or too light to counter evaporation. Today’s soil moisture is rated marginally short to slightly surplus from Mpumalanga and Gauteng southward into Natal where crop conditions are best. Soil conditions to the north and west of this region are not nearly as good, although subsoil moisture is supporting early planted crops while they wait for significant new rain. The region that is most dry is Northern Cape and western portions of both Free State and North West. These drier areas have short to very short top and subsoil moisture. Crop development has either been slowed or is on hold in these drier areas until there is a significant rain event. Any planting that is not complete has either been put on hold or is occurring in dry soil in hopes of better moisture in coming days and weeks.

Isolated showers will produce minimal rain in pockets of central and eastern South Africa today and Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will then evolve Sunday and continue on a frequent basis through the end of next week. Rain totals through next Friday morning will range from 0.50 to 2.50 inches with locally greater amounts in Free State and North West. A large section of Limpopo will also receive less than 0.50 inch of rain. The erratic rain pattern will continue into the second week of the outlook, October 8-14, although there is some potential for greater coverage amounts of rain.

Northern Cape, Western Cape, and western sections of Eastern Cape will receive little rain through the end of next week. Rain potentials will increase for Northern Cape during the second week while Western Cape and western sections of Eastern Cape remain in a dry mode.

Rain amounts in other areas of the nation are likely to vary greatly with the greatest rainfall expected Dec. 8-14 in areas east of Northern Cape. The rain will be erratically distributed in both weeks, but the increase in coverage and amounts expected in the second week of December should help to induce some improvement to crop and field conditions. There will still be some dryness and most of that will be mostly in the western portions of the crop region. At least half of South Africa’s crops will experience a net improvement by December 15 with most of that change resulting from the Dec. 8-14 rainfall.

Winter wheat harvesting will continue under favorable conditions during the next two weeks across Western Cape. The harvest will be slowed at times in Free State and North West, but its progress has likely already advanced swiftly because of recent drying. Wheat harvesting will advance most significantly in the west where rainfall is expected to lightest and most insignificant.

World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Comments regarding damage or the impact of weather on agricultural and energy as well as comments made regarding the impact of weather on the commodity and financial markets are the explicit opinions of World Weather, Inc. World Weather, Inc. can not be held responsible for decisions made by users of the Corporation’s information in any business, trade or investment decision.

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