Brazil’s Long Range Outlook Still Showing No Change
By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner
Kansas City, December 7 (World Weather Inc.) – Rain has occurred erratically across Brazil in recent weeks and the trend will continue for another two weeks. World Weather, Inc. believes the favorable weather pattern will prevail much longer than that because of an active jet stream and weakening La Nina conditions. Rainfall should be sufficient enough to improve soil conditions for the 
areas dealing with dryness in the northeast. Other production areas in center-south and center-west Brazil will receive enough rain to keep soil moisture rated adequate to excessive. Rio Grande do Sul will be the only region that is drier than normal during the coming week. The ground will gradually firm and could slow crop growth rates in portions of the region. Rain will be needed in southern Brazil later this month to reverse the drying trend while some areas from Paraguay to Parana and from Goias to Minas Gerais may eventually need a brief period of drying to help firm up the topsoil.
Rainfall was scattered across Brazil during the week ending Tuesday morning. Areas from Santa Catarina and Parana through Mato Grosso, Goias, southern and western Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, and Espirito Santo reported 0.75 to 3.00 inches of rain most often. Local totals up to 5.40 inches were noted in Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, Parana, and eastern Santa Catarina while one location in central Mato Grosso do Sul reported 7.00 inches of rain. In contrast, portions of eastern Sao Paulo received less than 0.75 inch of rain and Rio Grande do Sul received 0.50 to 1.00 inch of rain with local totals up to 2.25 inches. Northern Minas Gerais and Bahia reported 0.20 to 0.75 inch of rain with local amounts up to 1.40 inches.
Soil moisture is adequate or abundant in much of Brazil outside Bahia and northern Minas Gerais where it is rated short to very short. Pockets in western and southern Rio Grande do Sul have marginally adequate to short topsoil moisture. Fieldwork was disrupted periodically in portions of center-south and center-west Brazil in recent weeks due to the frequent precipitation, but sufficient drying time nearly always occurred to prevent most areas from becoming too wet. Bahia and northern Minas Gerais still need more rain to completely break the drought that has plagued the region for several years.
Early season corn planting should be complete or nearly complete across Brazil. Soybean, rice, and cotton planting will come to an end in the coming weeks. Crops have established and grown under generally favorable conditions in recent weeks in much of Brazil. The recent lack of rain in southern Rio Grande do Sul did not significantly firm up the topsoil, though rain is needed in the near 
future to keep the ground from becoming too dry for favorable growth conditions. Bahia and northern Minas Gerais are also too dry to support the best crop conditions and need rain in the coming weeks. The most important grain and oilseed production areas in both Minas Gerais and Bahia are in the west where soil moisture is more favorable.
Scattered showers will evolve in much of Brazil on a frequent basis during the coming week. The rain will continue to bolster soil moisture, even in the drier areas of Bahia and northern Minas Gerais. Late season planting will often be slowed, though most producers will have opportunities to get into the fields. Rain totals through next Tuesday morning in most locations outside of Rio Grande do Sul will range from 1.00 to 5.00 inches with locally greater amounts in Mato Grosso do Sul, northern and western Parana and Paraguay. Southern Rio Grande do Sul will receive less than 0.50 inch of rain through next 
Tuesday while the north will receive 0.50 to 1.50 inches.
The frequent precipitation will help to induce near normal temperatures. Daily high temperatures in the 80s and lower to a few middle 90s are expected. Crop development rates will gradually slow in Rio Grande do Sul as the ground firms up, but favorable subsoil moisture will continue supporting crops through much of the next week to ten days without much concern for dryness threatening production.
World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Comments regarding damage or the impact of weather on agricultural and energy as well as comments made regarding the impact of weather on the commodity and financial markets are the explicit opinions of World Weather, Inc. World Weather, Inc. can not be held responsible for decisions made by users of the Corporation’s information in any business, trade or investment decision.
©2016 World Weather, Inc. Any unauthorized redistribution, duplication or disclosure is prohibited by law and will result in prosecution.