Center-South, Center-West Brazil Plenty Wet

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By Andrew Owen

Kansas City, December 13 (World Weather Inc.) – Abundant rainfall occurred over a large part of Brazil’s summer grain, oilseed and cotton production areas during the past week and the wet bias was expected to continue for a while. The ground is saturated in many areas and fieldwork has been slowed especially in center west and center south production areas where the wet bias has been most significant. A reduction in precipitation intensity is expected late this week and that should translate into better crop and field conditions. Western Bahia will also receive timely rain that will bolster soil moisture and improve crop conditions. Southern Brazil will trend drier than normal through the middle of next week resulting in a firming topsoil that might eventually stress a few crops. However, rain will return to far southern Brazil next week just in time to replenish topsoil moisture and avoid any production potential changes.

Rainfall was greatest from Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, and eastern and northern Parana through much of the Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso and Goias during the past week. Moisture totals for the seven-day period ending Tuesday morning ranged from 1.00 to 5.50 inches. Western and southern Bahia received some important rain with amounts to 2.80 inches of rain. Portions of Santa Catarina received up to 2.00 inches of moisture while the remaining areas in southern Brazil reported a trace to 0.55 inch with local amounts up to 1.25 inches in western Rio Grande do Sul.

Saturated topsoil is present in many center-south and center-west Brazil locations because of the recent significant rainfall. Many areas are too wet for aggressive fieldwork and would benefit from a brief period of dry weather. Crop growth and development conditions will improve once the ground has a chance to dry down for a while. The rain was not enough to significantly impact long-term crop conditions. The outlook for most coarse grains and oilseeds is highly favorable barring a significant change to the forecast in the next few weeks.

Western Bahia received enough rain this past week to raise its soil moisture to more adequate levels. However, the rain did not shift to the east very well leaving some coffee, cocoa and minor grain and oilseed areas still fighting a shortage of moisture. Soil moisture is much improved due to rainfall in recent weeks, though the rain was not enough to break drought that has plagued the region for years. Crop prospects will improve significantly if timely rain continues deeply through the summer.

Portions of Rio Grande do Sul have marginally adequate to very short topsoil moisture, but subsoil moisture is still rated favorably. The drying trend has had no negative impact on the state’s corn, soybeans rice or other crops – at least not yet. Soil moisture remains adequate in other sections of southern Brazil despite the lack of significant rain in several areas. As long as timely rain evolves in the coming weeks, there will be no major concerns for quality reductions or production cuts in southern Brazil.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to promote significant rain for portions of center-south and center-west Brazil through Friday. The rain will either keep soil moisture near current levels or it will further bolster it. Minor flooding will be possible for the areas that receive the greatest amount of rain. However, flooding is not expected to last for an extended period of time as precipitation becomes lighter and more erratic over the weekend and beginning of next week. Many areas during the drier days of this two week forecast will not receive enough precipitation to counter evaporation and that will lead to much improved field and crop conditions.

Moisture totals for the seven-day period ending next Tuesday morning will range from 0.75 to 5.00 inches from central and southern Minas Gerais and eastern Sao Paulo through northern Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso. Local rain amounts over 5.00 inches will be possible in Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso.

Western Bahia will receive another 3.00 inches of rain through next Tuesday. Other sections of Bahia and neighboring areas in northern Minas Gerais will only see brief periods of light rain. Much of the precipitation will be too light to counter evaporation leading to a rising need for significant rain and a good chance for some developing crop stress. The ground will firm and could continue to cause uneven or poor development until a more general rain event takes place.

Areas from Rio Grande do Sul through southern Mato Grosso and separately in western Bahia will trend drier than normal through the beginning of next week. Much of the rain that falls will be too light to impact long-term soil conditions. Net drying will gradually evolve across both areas. However, timely rain will evolve in southern Brazil starting a week from now that will sufficiently restore favorable soil moisture and crop development.

World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Comments regarding damage or the impact of weather on agricultural and energy as well as comments made regarding the impact of weather on the commodity and financial markets are the explicit opinions of World Weather, Inc. World Weather, Inc. can not be held responsible for decisions made by users of the Corporation’s information in any business, trade or investment decision.

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