Many Brazil Dry Areas Get Rain; Huge Crop Remains

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By Drew Lerner

Kansas City, January 17 (World Weather Inc.) – Significant rain fell across Brazil’s center west and center south crop areas during the weekend and Monday. Sufficient rain fell in many areas to notably bolster soil moisture after a period of net drying brought on some crop stress and threatened to impact yields.

Rain fell most significantly during the weekend and Monday, but over the past seven days rain was widespread from Mato Grosso through Goias and extreme eastern Mato Grosso do Sul to Minas Gerais, portions of Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and northern and eastern Parana. Rainfall in this region ranged from 1.50 to more than 3.00 inches with local totals of 3.00 to 5.55 inches. The Port of Paranagua reported 8.86 inches of rain with most of that occurring last week. In contrast, rainfall in Bahia was less than 0.67 inch with some areas left completely dry. Another area of limited rain occurred from northern Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina north into Mato Grosso do Sul where 0.05 to 0.60 inch of rain resulted. Another area of more significant rain fell in central, western and southern Rio Grande do Sul where 1.58 to 3.66 inches resulted.

Each of the drier regions mentioned above experienced a net drying bias that likely firmed up the soil in interior southern portions of Brazil while perpetuating a multi-year drought in Bahia.

A notable improvement in topsoil moisture occurred across center west and center south Brazil as a result of the rain reported over the past week and especially that of Friday through Monday period. Many areas from northern Minas Gerais to Mato Grosso were reporting short to very short topsoil moisture a week ago, but today’s soil is saturated with moisture and a little drying might be needed snow to support soybean and other harvesting that is under way.

Rainfall for the month to date has still been far below average in eastern and southern Bahia, southern Tocantins and a few immediate neighboring areas in northern Goias and northernmost Minas Gerais. Most other areas have seen a significant boost in rainfall, although not quite back to normal from Minas Gerais to parts of Mato Grosso. The rainfall pattern that evolved during the weekend and continued Monday will prevail over the next full week and additional rain is expected. The additional moisture will lead to some significant runoff in a few areas and a few areas will become too wet. Drying will be needed to protect harvest progress from falling significantly behind the normal pace and to protect crop quality.

Rio Grande do Sul is the only state in Brazil that has been excessively wet recently. Rainfall in the first half of this month was two to three times normal with the greatest deviations being in southern rice production areas, but most of the entire state has been involved with the excessive moisture situation.

Weather in the coming week will allow most of southern Brazil and neighboring areas of Paraguay to dry out. The firming soil will not likely be a problem for any area in this coming week to ten days, but Paraguay, western Mato Grosso do Sul and western Parana may become a little too dry over time.

Rainfall during the coming week is advertised to fall in a pattern that is similar to that of the past few days favoring areas from Sao Paulo and southern Minas Gerais to Mato Grosso, Goias and Tocantins. Rainfall of 1.00 to 3.00 inches and local totals near and possibly over 5.00 inches will be possible. The ground will continue quite wet in this region while net drying occurs elsewhere.

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