Brazil Harvest Pace Will Improve With Less Rain

Download .pdf

By Drew Lerner

Kansas City, February 14 (World Weather Inc.) – Brazil weather will be improving as this week moves along due to much less rain frequency and intensity in many key grain, oilseed, cotton, rice, sugarcane, citrus and coffee production areas. The one area needing rain most, Bahia, will not likely see any further improvements in soil moisture following last week’s short term bout of dryness easing rain. The drier weather expected from Mato Grosso to Parana and Sao Paulo will translate into better soybean harvest conditions and improved Safrinha corn and cotton planting. Mato Grosso will continue wettest for a while and will need a more significant bout of drying to get farmers into their fields a little more aggressively.

Weather conditions have been quite wet this summer, as expected with the La Nina phenomenon. Even though La Nina is now gone, there is still some lingering effects that will prevail for a little while longer. Rainfall so far this month has been impressive in several very important grain and oilseed production areas. The most recent news has been from Mato Grosso where some very heavy rainfall has occurred. Rain totals in Mato Grosso have officially ranged from 4.00 to 11.38 inches, but several unofficial rain totals have greatly surpassed that range.

Reports from Mato Grosso and some other states have included comments about harvesting beans that have not dried down properly. Some of the moisture continent has been well above 30% when harvested which is up from around 14% average. Farmers have not wanted to wait out the rain for fear the Safrinha crops would not get planted and harvesting the crop wet has been a slow process for some producers and one that has been costly because of the additional monetary obligation in having the beans dried.

Despite the wet environment, recent statistics from Brazil claim the harvest in Mato Grosso is moving along better than that in some other states with 44% of the beans now harvested. There have been delays in shipping the harvested crop because of the longer amount of time required to dry the beans before loading them into trucks and storage.

Harvest delays have been greatest in Parana where rain fell frequently in late January as well as in early February. According to AgRural, harvesting of Parana beans was just 13% complete compared to 30% average

Delays in harvesting soybeans are also delaying the planting of second season corn with nationwide harvesting now 27% done which is similar to last year’s 25% pace.  Parana, however, was just 19% planted with Safrinha corn which is down from 44% done last year at this time and down from the 25% four-year average.

  Weather conditions are changing in Brazil and will soon favor a better environment for net drying from Parana to Minas Gerais and north into a part of both Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias. Rain is still possible on a daily basis during the next week to ten-day period, but the intensity and frequency of rain will be down considerably from that of the past couple of weeks. Farming will slowly improve as the topsoil begins to firm, but no area is going to become seriously dry for a while.

Mato Grosso will continue to experience some of the most significant rainfall today and Wednesday, but after that it, too, will experience less aggressive rainfall and will likely see slowly improving field and crop conditions. Mato Grosso will still be the wettest of the Brazilian crop states for a while, but the heavier rainfall of the past few days will come to an end.

Temperatures in Brazil are likely to be seasonable over the next couple of weeks, although as the ground begins to dry down in the southeast and east-central crop areas there will be some potential for warmer afternoon readings. Instead of 80- and lower 90-degree highs, afternoon temperatures will rise into the middle 80s through the middle 90s, but probably not for another week.

In the meantime, slowly increasing fieldwork will take place as the ground finally dries out.

World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Comments regarding damage or the impact of weather on agricultural and energy as well as comments made regarding the impact of weather on the commodity and financial markets are the explicit opinions of World Weather, Inc. World Weather, Inc. cannot be held responsible for decisions made by users of the Corporation’s information in any business, trade or investment decision.

©2017 World Weather, Inc. Any unauthorized redistribution, duplication or disclosure is prohibited by law and will result in prosecution.