Brazil Rain To Slow Late Season Harvests, Improve Corn

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By Andrew Owen

Kansas City, May 16 (World Weather Inc.) – A strong atmospheric disturbance will evolve later this week and this weekend over Brazil. This disturbance will promote showers and thunderstorms that produce significant rainfall in several areas. Some of the rain will be heavy enough to slow or delay early season harvesting of sugarcane and coffee while contributing to slower late season rice harvesting. The precipitation will induce some flooding and could have a temporary impact on second season corn, although no negative impact on production is expected. Some beneficial moisture may reach into Mato Grosso and Goias corn and cotton production areas which had been trending too dry recently. Harvesting will advance swiftly during the next few days before rain potentials increase.

Rainfall during the past week was greatest in southern and central Rio Grande do Sul. Moisture totals for the seven-day period ending this morning ranged from 3.40 to nearly 5.80 inches. Other areas from northern Rio Grande do Sul through Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso received 0.39 to just over 2.50 inches. Portions of Goias, western Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, and eastern Parana received up to 0.85 inch of rain during the past week while most other production areas were dry or mostly dry.

Topsoil conditions are saturated with moisture in much of Rio Grande do Sul, portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and western sections of Parana and Santa Catarina. Late season harvesting and general fieldwork was slowed in many of these areas during the past week because of the wet conditions. Fieldwork delays were also suspected in portions of Mato Grosso, but mostly in the past couple of days with dry weather dominating the remainder of the past week. Other production areas did not receive enough rain to significantly bolster soil moisture or impact the harvest or fieldwork in most locations.

Rio Grande do Sul was largely wetter than normal since the beginning of May. Rainfall was one and a half to more than three times normal in most areas with portions of northern Rio Grande do Sul only receiving 65-91% of normal precipitation. Pockets in Mato Grosso and southwestern Minas Gerais were also wetter than usual, but the rain reported in each area occurred over a single day or two leaving the remainder of the month to date period dry.

            The other production areas reported near to below normal precipitation with a broad region in Bahia, western, northern and eastern Mato Grosso into Goias and a part of Mato Grosso were dry or mostly dry along with Rio de Janeiro and Espirito Santo. The lack of rain promoted aggressive fieldwork in most locations. The lack of rain was also promoting some late season crop stress especially from western Minas Gerais through Goias to eastern Mato Grosso. Some of the drier areas have been dry for several weeks and temperatures were very warm hot resulting in the depletion of topsoil moisture and stress for second season crops while in reproduction.

A general boost in precipitation was expected to take place across southern center west and center south Brazil during the Wednesday night through Sunday period. Rainfall is expected to become excessive for many areas from Mato Grosso do Sul and parts of northern Parana into southern Minas Gerais. The greatest rain will fall in Sao Paulo where torrential amounts are expected to result in flooding. Some locations across the wettest are will receive 2.00 to 4.00 inches of rain with local totals of 5.00 to 6.00 inches. Such amounts of rain will quickly saturate the soil and cause flooding.

Too much rain in citrus, sugarcane, coffee and late developing rice production areas in interior southern and center south Brazil will result in harvest delays. Some of the excessive rain will negatively impact the quality of unharvested rice and cotton in center south production areas and could reduce sucrose values in maturing sugarcane. Most crops will recover from any adversity that comes from too much rain as long as dry weather evolves and prevails for a while. The annual rainy season is supposed to be over, but World Weather, Inc. anticipates more above-average rainfall during the June through August period this year and that might have more to say about coffee and sugarcane quality and could eventually have an impact on slowing corn maturation and harvest progress.

Not all of the rain expected will be a negative factor for crops. Lighter rainfall is expected in center west corn and cotton production areas where there is likely to be some improvement in topsoil moisture. The moisture will ease crop moisture stress and induce a better environment for crops to finish the reproductive and filling season more favorably. Some yield potential has been lost in eastern Mato Grosso and parts of Goias and western Minas Gerais because of persistent dry and warm weather, but the rain expected late this week and into the weekend will help put an end to that stress and improve late season crop development potentials.

In the meantime, rain in far southern Brazil will not be excessive during the coming week, but enough will occur to contribute to the already wet conditions raising some conditional concerns for late season soybeans, rice and any other late season crop.

Rain in Parana, Sao Paulo and immediate neighboring areas will help improve soil moisture for winter wheat planting, emergence and establishment.

World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Comments regarding damage or the impact of weather on agricultural and energy as well as comments made regarding the impact of weather on the commodity and financial markets are the explicit opinions of World Weather, Inc. World Weather, Inc. can not be held responsible for decisions made by users of the Corporation’s information in any business, trade or investment decision.

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