2017 Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Hurricane Outlook
By Drew Lerner
Kansas City, May 15 (World Weather Inc.) – Hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean Basin, including the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea in 2017 is expected to be a little more active than usual, according to World Weather, Inc. Thirteen named storms are expected in 2017 with 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. The outlook is greater than usual with many storms expected to pass through the western Atlantic Ocean without impacting North America. However, the probability for land falling storms will be highest in the southeastern United States and there will be potential 
for multiple storms to move through the region. The average number of named storms in a tropical season is around 12.
Warm ocean temperatures off the coast of Africa and some warm ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and along the U.S. Atlantic Coast will contribute to the slightly more active hurricane season in 2017. El Nino could become a factor late in the year, but we believe the odds are high that warm ocean temperatures will occur without the usual amount of wind shear due to the lack of cooling in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean. The missing cool water will limit the significance of El Nino like conditions and will help to reduce shear in the Atlantic Ocean Basin. We debated between 13 and 14 named tropical storms, but settled on 13 because of the potential for low amplitude jet stream features late in the hurricane season that might inhibit development. We also believe the warm pools of water in the eastern Atlantic, off the coast of Africa, and that in the Gulf of Mexico will diminish later in the summer and without the warmer than usual pools developing late season storms will be more difficult.
A frequently appearing trough of low pressure over the eastern United States this summer will help draw tropical cyclones into the region making Florida, Georgia and southeastern Alabama the region most vulnerable to tropical cyclones most often. Texas coastal areas may have their greatest risk of a weak storm or two in June and then a low probability for storms until very late in to the hurricane season. In contrast, storms moving across the Pacific Ocean from Africa and a few that develop in the central tropical Atlantic will tend to move toward the U.S. southeast coast and then turn north northeastward. The timing and exact positioning of the troughs of low pressure over the eastern U.S. will determine much about the landfall potential.
Drought conditions may linger in the southeastern states through mid-summer, but as the late season trough evolves over the region some of the tropical cyclones will be drawn into the region to help finish the growing season wet, ending drought, and raising concern over harvest conditions for many late summer crops.
The central U.S. Gulf of Mexico Coast may have the lowest probability for land-falling storms this year. The region includes the upper Texas Coast and Louisiana, although none of these hurricane forecasts are so great that we can put our guard down. The active summer will need to be closely monitored. If, for some reason, El Nino does kick into a significant event before the hurricane season ends the forecast storms will have to be revised downward.
World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Comments regarding damage or the impact of weather on agricultural and energy as well as comments made regarding the impact of weather on the commodity and financial markets are the explicit opinions of World Weather, Inc. World Weather, Inc. cannot be held responsible for decisions made by users of the Corporation’s information in any business, trade or investment decision.
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