Western Argentina Will See Minimal Rain During Coming Week
By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner
Kansas City, July 8 (World Weather Inc.) – Rainfall continued to be limited in parts of Argentina’s grain production region during the past week. The phenomenon of limited rainfall occurs in many El Nino years because of the tendency for southern Brazil rainfall to be well above average and that results in less rain for Argentina. This trend has certainly been ongoing in recent weeks for both countries and there is no reason to expect huge changes. However, with that said there will be some additional rain in Argentina during the latter part of this week through the weekend that will offer some additional relief to the driest areas. Wheat planting has advanced relatively well, but the crop region needs greater rainfall to improve establishment. Many western crops have established poorly due to the lack of rain. Buenos Aires crops are in favorable condition.
Erratic and often light rainfall was reported in portions of Argentina during the past week. Rain totals for the seven-day period ending this morning in most portions of Buenos Aires outside the west and northeast ranged from a trace to 0.75 inch. Cordoba reported up to 0.50 inch of rain while Santiago del Estero received up to 0.35 inch. Central and northeastern Argentina received very little rainfall of significance. Most of Chaco, Santa Fe, Entre Rios, La Pampa, and western Buenos Aires were left completely dry.
Topsoil moisture was is rated short to very short from La Pampa to Santiago del Estero and northwestern Santa Fe Monday. Marginally adequate to slightly short soil moisture was present in most other production areas excepting the heart of Buenos Aires and a few areas from central Santa Fe and northern Entre Rios to Corrientes where soil moisture was rated adequately. The only saturated moisture conditions noted in Argentina were in northeastern cotton and citrus areas. Recent mild to occasionally cool temperatures have helped to conserve soil moisture through lower evaporation rates resulting in a limited number of locations critically dry.
Rainfall as a percentage of normal for the month of June was below or well below average for much of Argentina. Most areas from La Pampa and western Buenos Aires through southern Santiago del Estero and western Santa Fe reported less than 25% of normal rainfall. Although there is not normally a significant amount of rain in June for these areas, the lack of rain impacted the amount of winter wheat that was planted. Buenos Aires, Entre Rios, and neighboring areas were also drier than normal, but enough precipitation fell to support some fieldwork and to prevent the ground from becoming critically dry. The greatest rainfall reported in June occurred in Chaco and neighboring areas where one to three times the usual amount of rain was reported.
Winter wheat planting was 69% complete as of July 3. Greater precipitation is needed to promote a better environment for planting and establishment.
Corn, sorghum, and peanut harvesting have advanced favorably in recent weeks due to the lack of rain. As of July 2, corn harvesting was 66% complete, up from 62% in the previous week and up from 57% last year. Sorghum harvesting was 74% complete, down from 78% last year while peanut harvesting was 93% complete, up from 87% in 2014. Dry and warm weather would promote near ideal conditions for the rest of the harvest.
There will be two opportunities for light precipitation in Argentina during the coming week. A band of showers will evolve over southern Argentina Friday night before shifting into eastern fringes of Argentina throughout the day Saturday. Light and erratic precipitation will evolve in portions of central and northern Argentina Sunday and Monday. Moisture totals during this time will range from a trace to 0.25 inch with local amounts of 0.50 inch or more from southern Cordoba through southeastern Buenos Aires. Areas from northern Corrientes through eastern Formosa will receive 0.50 to 1.00 inch of rain with locally greater amounts. Temperatures will trend near normal most often.
The limited amounts of rain during the coming week will continue to promote less than favorable winter wheat planting and establishment conditions. Planting will likely advance slowly, but germination and emergence from the drier areas will be slow until greater rain falls.
Corn, sorghum, and peanut harvesting may be slowed by the light rainfall for brief periods of time. Otherwise, fieldwork advance swiftly.
Neighboring Chile wheat areas are suffering from a prolonged drought and are in need of moisture. Central and southern Chile will receive 1.00 to 3.00 inches of rain during the coming week that should help bolster soil moisture to more favorable levels. The rain will not be enough to completely fix the moisture deficit, though soil conditions will improve in many areas. Northern Chile will remain in a dry mode.