India’s Monsoon Progressing Well; Crop Outlook Favorable
By Jared McWilliams and Drew Lerner
Kansas City, June 12 (World Weather Inc.) – Monsoonal rainfall has increased over much of India during early June. The greatest rainfall anomalies have occurred from the interior south through western Madhya Pradesh and parts of Gujarat to Rajasthan and a part of both Punjab and Kashmir and Jammu where the moisture has helped bolster planting and 
establishment prospects. In the meantime, some below normal rainfall has occurred from northeast Maharashtra and eastern Madhya Pradesh into Uttar Pradesh as well as in the far south of the nation and in portions of both West Bengal and Odisha. The prospects of seeing much more rain across the majority of the nation in the next few weeks remains very good.
Monsoonal rainfall has increased over much of India during the first one-third of June. The greatest rain has occurred over the lower west coast where rounds of heavy rain have resulted in moisture totals varying from nearly 5.00 inches to 15.67 inches. Several other areas in both west-central and far eastern parts of India, including Bangladesh, have also reported significant rainfall. Totals in these latter areas ranged from 3.00 to more than 9.00 inches. Some of the most important rain may have occurred in this past 
weekend when totals in western Madhya Pradesh and parts of Maharashtra pushed the totals for the month to between 4.00 and 6.50 inches. Several areas in northern India reported 0.50 to 2.25 inches of rain while most other areas reported less than 1.00 inch of rain. There were a few locations in western Chhattisgarh into northeastern Andhra Pradesh where 3.50 inches and 4.62 inches resulted.
Temperatures over the past 11 days were still quite hot in the northwest and central portions of the nation which may have helped to fuel the abundant rainfall elsewhere. The heat was producing strong rising motion in the atmosphere at the same time the positive phase of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) was bringing greater than usual amounts of moisture inland. The combination of these two features has helped to push larger amounts of moisture higher into the atmosphere 
creating stronger thunderstorms and more intensive rainfall. This phenomenon is expected to continue for a while.
In this year’s pattern there may be a bias for the greatest rainfall to continue in interior western and northern parts of the nation – at least for a while. The below-average rainfall occurring in the upper and middle Ganges River Basin may continue for a while, as well. However, eastern Madhya Pradesh and northeastern Maharashtra will likely experience a boost in rainfall over this coming week to help reduce the region of below average rainfall. That will likely leave Odisha, West Bengal and the far southernmost tip of India running a little drier than usual into the final days of June. A monsoon low developing in the Bay of Bengal late this month or in July should eliminate the moisture deficit in Odisha and West Bengal.
Soil moisture improvements are under way, but the biggest changes have yet to come. Subsoil moisture is still running very low in all, but eastern and a small part of the lower west coastal region of India. Those areas have adequate subsoil moisture and adequate to surplus topsoil moisture. Recent rainfall of significance in western Madhya Pradesh, portions of Maharashtra, northeastern Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and southwestern Chhattisgarh has saturated the topsoil and some local flooding may be under way.
Recent rain in west-central India has not only improved topsoil moisture, but should have stimulated some early season planting across parts of the region. Fieldwork will advance most significantly in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and southeastern Rajasthan shortly after the early season deluge of rain begins to subside – which may be a little later this month or in early July. Some fieldwork 
will occur soon, but the risk of flooding is often high early in the monsoon season during a wet year and producers will likely have to wait for a quieter period of time. No one will complain about the rain right now, however. Water supply will be bolstered and the more rain that falls during the balance of this month the more likely this year’s planting will advance extremely well during drier periods that may be lying ahead.
The coming week of rain may not be as heavy as one might have imagined given the rainfall distribution in recent days. Amounts will range from 1.00 to 3.00 inches with local totals to more than 4.00 inches from Gujarat and Maharashtra to western Madhya Pradesh. Similar rainfall will occur to the south and east impacting Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, West Bengal and in portions of Andhra Pradesh. Rainfall in northern India will vary from nothing in northwestern Rajasthan and Pakistan to between 0.30 to 1.50 inches elsewhere. A small part of far southern Tamil Nadu will be as dry as northwestern Rajasthan.
Temperatures will cool in portions of central and northwestern India, but the dry areas of Rajasthan and Pakistan will continue to be quite warm to hot.
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