Tropical Storm Merbok Will Promote Heavy Rain In China
By Brad Luchen and Drew Lerner
Kansas City, June 12 (World Weather Inc.) – Tropical Storm Merbok recently formed west of the Philippines. Moisture from the storm will flow into southern China through Tuesday and promote thunderstorms and moderate to heavy rain. Landfall is expected around 18z Monday. The system will weaken over land and then strengthen again as the center moves back of the water barely north of Taiwan. Southern China has already received excessive moisture recently and the tropical storm will lead to areas of flooding. Sugarcane and rice will be among the most vulnerable crops; though, no widespread significant damage is expected.
At 0300 GMT today, the center of the storm was 122 miles south southeast of Hong Kong near 20.9 north and 114.9 east. Movement was north northwesterly at 13 mph with a maximum sustained wind speed of 46 mph.
Landfall will occur around 18z Monday slightly east of Hong Kong, China. The winds and organization of the storm will gradually decrease after landfall. By 12z Tuesday, sustained winds will have decreased to 29 mph with barely any circulation left; however, heavy rain associated with the system will linger in southeastern China. The rain will cause areas of flooding that will threaten some crops and property.
Flooding is the greatest concern with Merbok. Soil conditions from recent rain across southern China are saturated. Topsoil moisture is mostly in the extremely wet category and because of this, there will be plenty of runoff. Rainfall through Wednesday will vary from 1.50 to 4.00 inches and locally as much as 6.50 inches or more in portions of southeastern China.
Notable crops in southern China include sugarcane and rice. These two crops will be most vulnerable to the excessive rainfall in additional to some others. The heavy rain and flooding will cause some damage; though, no significant or widespread losses are expected. Winds will likely not be strong enough to cause any serious damage to crops; however, minor damage may occur to the more advanced sugarcane that gets caught in some of the stronger wind gusts. The greatest impacts will be in localized areas that receive the greatest wind speeds and rainfall.
Moisture from the storm will linger in southern China into Friday, in combination with a few other disturbances, with more rounds of moderate to heavy rain. Flooding will remain a possibility through the end of this week as run-off gathers in streams, rivers, and fields. Drier-biased conditions are expected in southern China Saturday and next Sunday.
The remnants of Merbok are likely to strengthen again when what is left of the center moves out over water again east of southern China. This will cause enhanced rainfall in Taiwan Tuesday through Friday, especially in the western and central Taiwan where orographic lifting will be most significant.
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