Ukraine Weather May Improve Over Next Seven Days
By Drew Lerner
Kansas City, June 14 (World Weather Inc.) – Weather conditions across Ukraine have trended drier in the past couple of weeks and the need for rain has steadily increased. The nation’s driest areas will have multiple opportunities for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms during the coming week, but no general soaking 
of rain is expected. A lack of hot weather is saving crops and the trend for milder than usual conditions should prevail during this week of unsettled weather resulting in status quo conditions. If, however, rainfall is as significant as some computer forecast models have suggested there may be some general improvement in crop conditions – at least for a little while.
Rainfall since the first of June has varied from 0.05 to 0.25 inch across most of central and eastern Ukraine. A few areas in the west have received greater amounts with totals of 0.25 to nearly 1.00 inch in the interior northwest and amounts over 1.00 inch in the southwest near the Romania border. Most of the rain across central and eastern Ukraine was totally inadequate when compared to seasonably mild to warm temperatures. The lack of excessive heat has saved the crop – so far. However, any bout of heat that comes along without significant rain falling first will result in some significant 
plant stress that could lead to a threat to production.
Topsoil moisture in the western CIS is favorable in most crop areas from Belarus and the Baltic States through most of Russia. However, a large part of central and eastern Ukraine is running short to very short of topsoil moisture while subsoil moisture is running marginally adequate to slightly short. The environment is a little stressful, but recent mild temperatures have helped greatly in reducing the stress temporarily. High temperatures have been in the 60s, 70s and lower 80s Fahrenheit, but readings late last week were in the 80s and over 90 degrees inducing the first bout of more serious stress.
Ukraine has multiple “opportunities” for rain during the coming week to nearly ten days. The precipitation is not expected to be widespread on any given day and it will be erratically distributed benefiting some areas far more than others. Farmers are hoping that the 
distribution will be scattered enough from each of the next three weather systems that all areas will be impacted at one time or another.
Most of the rain will not be significant through Friday. However, a frontal system expected Saturday and Sunday may produce some greater rainfall across central portions of the nation with rainfall of 0.25 to 0.75 inch and locally more. The precipitation may shift to eastern Ukraine Monday and early Tuesday when similar rainfall may result. Another weather system is expected to bring a few more showers to the drier biased areas in the central and east during the middle to latter part of next week with similar rainfall possible.
Enough rain “might” occur by the end of next week to lift topsoil moisture for a little while reducing crop moisture stress and inducing some better crop development. Most likely the rain advertised is a little overdone, but there is potential that enough will occur to induce a short term improvement in topsoil moisture that might induce a little improvement in crop development. Yield potentials could be increased somewhat if all of the rain described above actually verifies. Confidence is low, but the fact that most computer weather forecast models are offering this short term bout of rain does lend some hope to producers that a break in the drying trend is possible. A few model runs have offered much greater rain than that described here. The situation will have to be closely monitored since much of the rain will not begin until the weekend and will continue periodically next week. That leaves plenty of time for change in the forecast.
Temperatures through the weekend will be a little cooler than usual in Ukraine and that in combination with the showers should help to improve crop conditions. Warming is expected early next week followed by another bout of cooling late in the week. The mix of weather could prove quite appealing to crops and producers and a close watch on the situation is warranted.
If timely rain occurs as indicated there might be just enough improvement to support favorable yields. Winter and spring crops only need enough rain to get them through early July to preserve and protect production potentials. Summer crops, however, will need more moisture in July to support their production potentials.
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