Ukraine Weather To Trend A Little Wetter
By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner
Kansas City, July 7 (World Weather Inc.) – Warm temperatures and limited rainfall in Ukraine during the past week further depleted topsoil moisture making this the driest week of summer. Crop stress rose significantly during the weekend, but recent cooler temperatures and a few showers have provided some relief. 
Additional showers and thunderstorms will impact the nation during the coming week while temperatures remain a little milder than usual resulting in a net increase in topsoil moisture and a reduction in crop stress. In the meantime, the lower Volga River Valley and neighboring areas of Russia’s Southern Region will remain in a net drying pattern and temperatures July 14-20 will be warm enough to expand drying and raise some concern over crop and field conditions.
Ukraine reported well below average precipitation in June just as it did in May. The two month period generated less than half of normal rainfall, but periods of cool weather conserved soil moisture sufficiently to limit the impact of dryness on crop production until this past weekend. Extreme high temperatures during the weekend reached into the 90s Fahrenheit and it did not take long for crops to become stressed because of limited soil moisture.
A similar situation occurred in the lower Volga River Basin and other areas in Russia’s Southern Region where temperatures peaked in the 90s to 102 degrees Fahrenheit. The lower Volga Basin has not been as dry as Ukraine for nearly as long, but the region’s dryness is more serious and rain needs to fall immediately to stop the decline in crop conditions.
This year’s dryness did not become serious enough to harm crops until recently which has likely left winter wheat and rye production in Ukraine relatively good under the circumstances. However, spring and summer crops in Ukraine and the lower Volga River Basin are 
either reproducing or about to reproduce making timely rain critical in ensuring the best production potential. Without significant rain soon, corn, soybean, sunseed and other late season crops are destined to produce poorly. In the meantime, drying should speed along winter crop maturation and eventual harvesting.
A series of weather disturbances will march across Ukraine during the coming week. Each of the disturbances will produce some light rainfall that will attempt to ease persistent dryness. Temperatures will likely remain seasonably mild to occasionally cool at the same time conserving soil moisture through lower evaporation. The combination of cooler temperatures and occasional light precipitation will lead to better soil and crop conditions. Follow up rain will be of critical importance, however, because the coming week of rain will not be enough to fully eliminate moisture deficits after two 
months of below normal rainfall. There will be enough moisture to induce temporary improvements in crop and field conditions.
Russia’s ‘Southern Region’ and lower Volga River Basin will not see nearly as much rain as Ukraine and the region will continue too dry. Cool weather will limit drying rates for a while, but warming in the July 14-20 period will accelerate drying and raise crop stress as reproduction gets under way. The impact of these conditions will be to lower production of many coarse grain and oilseed crops.
In contrast, the remainder of Russia is plenty moist with parts of the nation too wet. Some drying is needed to reduce the incidence of wet weather disease and to induce the best possible production potentials. Rain will continue often enough to prevent any dryness from evolving north of Ukraine or any part of the eastern New Lands.
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