Northeastern Mexico In Need Of Rain

By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner

Kansas City, July 8 (World Weather Inc.) – Rainfall has been lighter than normal in recent weeks across northeastern Mexico where June rainfall was near to above average. The recent drying has led to some unirrigated summer crop moisture stress and the need for rain is steadily rising. Northwestern Mexico has also struggled with dryness in recent weeks and could use more rain. In the meantime, central and southern Mexico has seen favorable monsoonal rain and most crops from there into the interior western portions of the nation are suspected of being in good condition. Much like northeastern and northwestern Mexico, Central America has also received well below average precipitation in recent weeks and greater rain would be welcome. However, despite below average Central America rainfall there has been sufficient amounts of rain to support many crops.

Monsoonal rainfall in Mexico has trended a little more erratic and sometimes lighter than usual recently. The same is true for much of the seasonal rainfall in Central America recently. Most of the lighter than usual precipitation has been a byproduct of El Nino and the trend will continue in many areas. The most significant dryness noted recently has been in northeastern Mexico where many grain and cotton production areas have reported well below average rainfall recently, but early to mid-June rainfall was sufficient to carry crops for a while. Northwestern Mexico has also been drier biased along with portions of Central America.

Many areas have received some rainfall, but the amounts have been light enough in some areas to leave deep subsoil moisture and water supply under replenished since the rainy season of last year abated. Some short term beneficial winter and spring rainfall occurred in some of the drier areas, but recent rainfall has been frequently light.

            Central Mexico from Jalisco and Michoacán through San Luis Potosi and portions of Oaxaca received timely rain during the past week. Rain totals for the seven-day period ending this morning ranged from 0.50 to 2.44 inches with local amounts up to 3.94 inches. Chihuahua received 0.35 to 1.15 inches while Tamaulipas reported just under 1.00 inch Many areas in the south of Mexico reported 0.50 to 1.65 inches of rain, although there were several areas that were mostly dry as well. The remaining portions of northeastern and northwestern Mexico outside of Chihuahua and Tamaulipas were dry.

            Much of northeastern and northwestern Mexico has short to very short soil moisture and the need for rain in unirrigated areas is steadily rising. Portions of Sinaloa and Sonora are among the driest areas. Many of these areas received near normal rainfall in June, though the warm weather and lack of frequent precipitation kept soil moisture from increasing to adequate levels. Soil moisture in central and southern Mexico is rated favorably.

Northeastern Mexico grows cotton, sorghum, corn and dry beans among several other crops. Production cuts in unirrigated areas will be possible if the dry weather bias continues for the next few weeks. There are not yet many concerns for dryness in northwestern Mexico. Monsoonal rainfall is normally widespread across northern Mexico at this time of year. Rain has been increasing, but mostly in the interior west and north-central parts of the nation leaving many other areas dry or mostly . Much of the rain that has fallen has also been lighter than usual and that has contributed to the concern about recent weather trends and crop conditions.

Monsoonal precipitation in central and southern Mexico has been favorable so far this year. There is plenty of moisture to promote a good environment for coffee, sorghum, corn, sugarcane, and other crops.

Dry weather will evolve in much of northeastern and east-central Mexico during the coming week. Areas from Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas through northern Veracruz and San Luis Potosi will receive little or no rain of significance. Net drying will evolve in much of the region, which will put a strain on several dryland crops. Irrigated crops should see mostly favorable development conditions, though the warm weather may stress crops at times. Timely rain will be needed later in July to keep the ground from trending critically dry.

The remaining portions of central and southern Mexico will continue to see timely monsoonal rain evolve during the coming week. Portions of northwestern Mexico will also receive enough precipitation to slightly bolster soil moisture. Crop development will advance in a mostly good environment.

Rainfall will be erratically distributed across Central America during the coming week. Many areas will receive enough rain to bolster soil moisture. However, there will still be pockets of dryness by the middle of next week.

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