Needed Rain Expected For Maharashtra And Telangana, India

By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner

Kansas City, September 8 (World Weather Inc.) – A large part of northern and central India went through the first week of September with little to no significant rain. The drying bias left many immature summer crops dependent upon subsoil moisture for normal crop development. Many central and northern crop areas in the nation experienced net drying, but subsoil moisture remained sufficient to carry on normal crop development in quite a few areas. With that said, net drying during the week was becoming a little stressful for unirrigated and immature crops in northwestern India from Gujarat to Punjab and parts of Haryana. Crop moisture stress also continued in portions of Maharashtra and western portions of Telangana, although these areas have a good chance for rain over the next ten days that should bring some relief. Relief from dryness in northwestern India is unlikely over the next ten days while Tamil Nadu is another state that is expected to experience a net loss in moisture for the period.

Areas from Kerala and portions of Tamil Nadu through eastern Maharashtra, Chattisgarh and Odisha received most of the past week’s significant rain. Rain totals for the seven-day period ending dawn Monday ranged from 0.75 to 4.00 inches with locally greater amounts. The Eastern States reported 1.50 to just over 10.00 inches of rain. Other than a few pockets that received timely precipitation, the remaining areas in India were mostly dry during the past week.

Soil moisture varies across India. Several areas in southern India, Chattisgarh, and Odisha have adequate or excessive topsoil moisture while Maharashtra, northwestern Telangana and portions of Tamil Nadu have short to very soil moisture. The Eastern States are excessively wet while northern and western India has short or very short soil moisture. Even though many areas dried in recent weeks, there is still enough subsoil moisture in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and immediate neighboring areas to promote favorable crop development.

There is still concern for production cuts in the most immature crop areas of Gujarat and Rajasthan where the topsoil is very short of moisture and subsoil moisture is short.  Normally monsoonal rainfall would end late in this coming week and subsoil moisture would be abundant for at least two more weeks after the rains ended resulting in favorable conditions for crops to fill and begin maturing in. However, with soil moisture already disappearing quickly the more immature crops may not have the moisture needed to support the best filling conditions and yield potentials will likely come down.  No monsoonal rain is expected in these northwestern crop areas during the next seven to ten days and drying will continue raising the potential for significant stress in another week. The environment will be good for early season crops that are being harvested now.

Maharashtra will receive timely monsoonal precipitation during the next seven days. The region has often missed out on precipitation that neighboring areas received earlier in the summer. There were periods of timely rain in recent weeks, although the rain was not enough to bolster soil moisture to adequate levels. Development has been uneven due to the extended period of dryness and production cuts may be possible. The rain during the coming week will help bolster soil moisture and should promote a better environment for most crops. Rain amounts for the seven day period ending next Tuesday morning will range from 0.75 to 2.50 inches with locally greater amounts in the west and southwest. Maharashtra is the largest producer of sorghum in India and also grows millet, soybeans, groundnuts, cotton, and sugarcane

Other sections of southern India will continue to receive timely monsoonal precipitation during the coming week as well. However, Tamil Nadu will be much drier than other sections of southern India. Much of the rain that falls in Tamil Nadu will be rapidly lost to evaporation. Soil moisture shortages will continue for much of the region. Crop development will be slow until better rainfall evolves. The remaining portions of southern India will receive enough rain to promote aggressive crop development.

Alternating periods of rain and sunshine will evolve from southern Uttar Pradesh and Chattisgarh through Bihar and West Bengal. These areas do not have a pressing need for moisture, though the rain that falls will help promote a good environment for most crops. There are very few concerns for rice and other crops produced in these areas. The Eastern States will continue to receive precipitation on a frequent basis during the coming week.

Overall, the only major issue is the dryness in Gujarat and Rajasthan. An El Nino environment normally promotes an early end to the monsoon season for western India.

The most important part of the next two week forecast may lie within the latest GFS model forecast that suggests monsoonal rain will return to northern India with a vengeance next week. The mid-day computer forecast model run suggested widespread rain in all of the areas noted above that are going to dry down over the next week. If the forecast verifies it would be a significant boon to the region and some of the concerns over production could be washed away. World Weather, Inc. is skeptical about the mid-day GFS model run forecast and will not be encouraged until the forecast for improving rain prevails through the end of this workweek. We anticipate some showers next week, but a big general soaking may not evolve as advertised.

World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Comments regarding damage or the impact of weather on agricultural and energy as well as comments made regarding the impact of weather on the commodity and financial markets are the explicit opinions of World Weather, Inc.  World Weather, Inc. can not be held responsible for decisions made by users of the Corporation’s information in any business, trade or investment decision.

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