Dryness To Be Further Eased In Indonesia
By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner
Kansas City, November 4 (World Weather Inc.) – Much needed rain will evolve in portions of Indonesia during the next two weeks as a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event slowly drifts across Southeast Asia. The MJO event will induce stronger convection (thunderstorm activity) resulting in greater rainfall. Sumatra, Java, Borneo, and several other production regions will receive sufficient rain to help bolster soil moisture to more adequate levels after months of extremely dry conditions. The rain will not be enough to completely end the dryness in some areas, but the ground will not be nearly as dry in two weeks as it has been in the past two weeks. Crop 
stress should be eased in the driest areas of Indonesia. Rain will also impact other areas in Southeast Asia as this event progresses from west to east through the region.
Drought is widespread and quite serious in southern Sumatra, Java, the Lesser Sunda Islands and southern portions of Sulawesi. These areas have received little rain in recent weeks. Most have a critical shortage of moisture and are in dire need of precipitation. The remaining portions of Indonesia and Malaysia reported abundant rain in the past week taking topsoil moisture from marginally adequate to surplus. The wetter bias has not caused much concern, but additional rain in the next two weeks may induce a little flooding. Central Sulawesi was included in the drought conditions a week ago, but received 5.00 inches of rain during the weekend to greatly change the environment.
Drought in Indonesia this year has been persistent and serious enough to harm rice, coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, oil palm, coconut, rubber, tea and a host other crops including many herbs and spices. The situation has hurt nearly every kind of crop in the region and the sooner rainfall resumes the better off future production is likely to be. Seasonal rainfall usually begins increasing at this time of year and that makes this MJO event extremely important in changing the general condition for planting of new season crops and the start of another aggressive growth season.
One of the main reasons for dryness in portions of Southeast Asia has been El Nino. The phenomenon produces high air pressure over the archipelago at times suppressing rainfall. Cooler-than-usual ocean temperatures surrounding Indonesia also restricts water vapor from reaching into the 
atmosphere as abundantly as usual and two phenomena often combine to induce drought. El Nino conditions will prevail through the first quarter of 2016, but it is expected to slowly weaken and seasonal rainfall will shift into the drought areas to – at least – induce a more frequent occurrence of rainfall even though amounts are likely to be less than usual into March.
A Madden-Julian Oscillation event will slowly track across Southeast Asia during the next seven to ten days. This event will increase rain potentials across Indonesia and Malaysia. Southern Sumatra, Java and the Lesser Sunday Islands, Sulawesi, and southern Kalimantan will receive much needed rain that will help bolster soil moisture. Rainfall during the next ten days will not be enough to completely eliminate moisture deficits, but many areas will see a significant increase in soil moisture. Rice and corn that are still in the growth stages will welcome the rain, as will most palm oil production areas and nearly all other crops produced in the region. Northern sections of Indonesia and much of Malaysia will continue to receive enough precipitation to maintain wet field conditions and raise the risk of local flooding.
Once the MJO event ends, drier conditions are expected to resume in southern Indonesia, although some periodic showers will linger into December. The ground will slowly dry out once again and the need for more rain will return over time.
The MJO event was already having a positive impact on portions of Indonesia and Malaysia during this past week. Rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia, northern Sumatra and much of Borneo ranged from 2.00 to more than 4.00 inches. Local totals reached up over 10.00 inches in Sarawak, Malaysia and more than 7.00 inches in northwestern peninsular Malaysia. Central Kalimantan reported 4.00 to more than 5.00 inches of rain and the same was true for central Sulawesi. In contrast, rainfall during the past week was mostly insignificant from southern Sumatra through Java to the Lesser Sunday Islands.
The latest subsoil moisture imagery reflects how serious dryness was just a week ago. The subsoil moisture chart should moisten up in parts of Indonesia during the next two weeks, but improvements in the subsoil will be slower in coming that in the topsoil.
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