Java, Indonesia Gets Needed Rain; Decreasing Rain Likely
By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner
Kansas City, November 10 (World Weather Inc.) – Java and portions of Kalimantan and Sulawesi in Indonesia reported significant rain during the past week. These areas have been struggling with dryness for the past several months stemming from El Nino. Even though the rain was not enough to completely fix the moisture deficits, it was enough to improve soil conditions in many locations. Southern Sumatra and the Lesser Sunda Islands were the only locations that remain in a dry mode during the past week. Timely rain will continue in much of Indonesia and Malaysia during the coming week as well.
Much of Java, northern and central Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, Borneo, and much of Sulawesi reported enough rain to bolster soil moisture during the past week. Rain amounts for the seven day period ending this morning ranged from 2.00 to 6.00 inches of most often with local totals up to 7.75 inches. In contrast, southern Sumatra, southern fringes of Kalimantan, southern Sulawesi, and the Lesser Sunda Islands received little or no rain of significance.
Southern Sumatra, the Lesser Sunda Islands, and portions of southern Kalimantan, southern Sulawesi, and eastern Java still have short or very short soil moisture. Most other locations have adequate to excessive topsoil moisture. Subsoil moisture is still short in the southern half of Sumatra, Java, southern Kalimantan, and southern Sulawesi. Once the moisture in the topsoil permeates down, subsoil conditions in western and central Java will improve.
The recent rainfall was needed to improve main season rice planting in Java. Java produces more than half of the rice in Indonesia and that makes it extremely important to the nation. Despite the improvement in soil moisture and the significant rain reported this week, the archipelago will likely trend drier again later in this coming week and again in the Nov. 18-25 period. Second season corn planting has also been slowed in Java and neighboring areas due to the dryness. Sugarcane, coffee, cocoa, rubber, tea and many other crops in Indonesia and Malaysia benefited from the recent increase in rainfall, but it must be sustainable to ensure crops continue to improve and that is not necessarily going to be the case. Oil palm production will also benefit from the moisture, but for that crop to turn around will take many weeks of frequent rain and that is not very likely.
A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event was one of the main factors for the recent influx of moisture. The MJO event is diminishing and will soon have very little influence on the region. The strong El Nino event will resume dominance in the region and that should suppress some of the rainfall for a while after another several days of frequent showers and thunderstorms. Despite the returning drier bias, conditions will not be as dry as those in recent weeks. Some showers will continue to come and go, but resulting rainfall may not be enough to avoid a decrease in soil moisture and rising concern over long term crop development potential.
Much of Indonesia and Malaysia will receive enough rain during the coming week to maintain moisture abundance. Rain amounts for the seven day period ending next Tuesday morning will range from 2.00 to 5.00 inches with locally greater amounts. However, the Lesser Sunda Islands and neighboring areas in southern Sulawesi will only receive light rain. Portions of southern Sumatra will also miss out on the most significant precipitation.
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