World Oilseeds Weather For January 19, 2017
By Drew Lerner
Kansas City, January 18 (World Weather, Inc.) – Extremely important rainfall occurred in Brazil this past weekend bolstering topsoil moisture after a couple of weeks of net drying. Crop stress had been increasing from Mato Grosso and Tocantins to Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais and Bahia. Rain fell in time to prevent production cuts in most of this region excepting Bahia and northern Minas Gerais where drought like conditions are prevailing. In the meantime, Argentina continued to be inundated with rain during the past couple of weeks resulting in flooding that has become serious enough to harm production in some areas. World Weather, Inc. believes some of the damage in Argentina is being overstated.
BRAZIL
Weather conditions in the last days of December and early January trended drier in much of northern Brazil. No area has been drier 
than Bahia or northern Minas Gerais, but for a little while dryness became stressful for soybeans and other crops in portions of Tocantins, eastern Mato Grosso, portions of Minas Gerais and Goias Some stress impacted crops throughout the region, but the damage done to production was kept very light due to favorable subsoil moisture and some timely showers.
Rain evolved during the late weekend and early part of this week bringing significant relief to the drying tendency across most of northern Brazil. Bahia, northern Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo experienced no relief and are still experiencing some significant crop stress. All other areas were sufficiently relieved of dryness and now have favorable soil moisture once again.
Brazil’s production potential has not changed much, despite the drier bias that evolved for a little while. A little stress is good for crops and the period of dry and warm weather was not enough to harm production except in Bahia and immediate neighboring areas where a decline in production is quite likely.
The next two weeks will perpetuate rain frequently across center west and center south Brazil. The precipitation will be sufficient to maintain good soil and crop development conditions. Production is still expected to be tremendous this summer, despite some loss in northeastern parts of the nation from ongoing drought conditions.
ARGENTINA
Weather conditions in Argentina this summer have been far from ideal and production numbers will suffer the consequences. Flooding in late October and drought in the first three weeks of December stressed crops, but a return to flooding in late December through the first half of January has perpetuated the adverse conditions resulting lower yields for many areas. Flooding worsened during the past weekend because of the return of 2.00 to 4.00-inch rainfall from Cordoba to Entre Rios and northernmost Buenos Aires. The extra rain occurred over soil that was still saturated or nearly saturated and that led to quick flooding. Excessive moisture is quite common across the heart of soybean country and some sunseed production areas have also been impacted. A cut in production is likely, but how significant that cut is going to be remains to 
be seen. An assessment of the situation is under way now, but improving weather in the next two weeks may reduce some of the apparent problems and may restore some of the production that might have been cut prematurely.
Improved weather is needed for the balance of the summer to give crops a better environment to finish out favorably. Late season soybean planting was not completed as of mid-month, but that is not unusual since much of those beans are planted following the wheat harvest which usually concludes this month.
Argentina sunseed production may also be down a bit this year because of dryness in the far south and some of that early season flooding that occurred in central parts of the nation.
A close monitoring of weather in the next few weeks is warranted since the odds are high that weather conditions will improve for many crops in Argentina and it is still unclear how seriously that adverse weather from October to December has impacted production potentials.
The coming ten days will be dry across the heart of the flooded region and temperatures will become very warm to hot. The heat and limited rain will help to improve topsoil conditions so that some improving conditions can occur to crops not standing in water. For the flooded areas. Some of the more seriously flooded areas will see flood water recede, but production cuts may not be reversible.
SOUTH AFRICA
Soybeans and eastern sunseed crops in South Africa have likely experienced favorable weather in recent weeks to support favorable crop development and production potentials. Western sunseed and peanut production areas experience some significant dryness early in the summer and late spring. Some of the dryness might have reduced plantings in eastern Northern Cape and western portions of both Free State and North West. Some of the peanut crop might not have been planted and some of it was seeded very late.
Recent rain in western oilseed production areas should have improved crop and field conditions. However, without knowing how much crop was not planted or how much was planted and when, it will be very difficult to assess the impact on production. Our best guess is that a loss to 
peanut production is inevitable with nearly one-third of the crop produced in the driest areas noted above. Only a small part of that crop has likely been lost. Sunseed is not planted as far to the west as that of peanuts and the impact of dry weather might not be as great.
Very good yielding soybean and sunseed crops area expected from eastern and central production areas of South Africa this summer some of those higher yielding crops will counter losses from other areas. The nation’s crops will still produce many times better than last year since severe drought impacted that crop. This year still has some drought conditions, but they are not nearly as widespread or as serious as they were previously. Despite, the western losses, South Africa will have a good production year.
Timely rainfall and mostly seasonable temperatures will persist through the next ten days to two weeks. The precipitation and temperatures should support ongoing good crop development potential with the only negative impact being on crops that suffered from dryness earlier this summer in western production areas.
AUSTRALIA
Oilseed production in Australia at this time of year is mostly confined to some sunseed and soybean crops produced in Queensland and northern New South Wales. Crops in both areas are performing fairly, but a more generalized rain event is needed to provide a little more moisture to the driest areas and to induce the best production potentials.
Some rain impacted a part of the region this past weekend and that was welcome, but more will have to fall, especially in some of the more western locations in order to induce the best possible production potentials.
Weather conditions in the coming two weeks will include periods of warm weather, but there is a fair chance that additional rain will come along in time to present more opportunity to help to reinforce production potentials.
INDIA
Winter rapeseed and groundnut conditions vary greatly across the nation. Rain is needed in most of the rain-fed production areas, but not much has occurred recently and not much was expected. Rain has occurred periodically in far northern India during the past couple of weeks, but most of it occurred in areas that do not produce winter oilseeds.
The next few weeks will be important for production potentials in India. Timely rain is needed and must occur to induce the best production potentials. Irrigated crops will perform in an average manner, but supplemental rainfall would be perfect for the crop and yields would likely rise higher in response to the precipitation. Unirrigated crops will yield poorly without some kind of improved rainfall.
A few showers and thunderstorms are expected in far northern India late next week. If the precipitation occurs as advertised a few crop areas will get some supplemental moisture to support better yields. The precipitation is not likely to be generalized or significant enough to induce dramatic changes, but every little bit of rain will help reproduction to some degree.
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CROPS
Winter rapeseed conditions are still rated favorably in nearly all production areas in the Northern Hemisphere. Crops in Europe and the western Commonwealth of Independent states are still dormant and most are poised to perform well in the spring. Recent bitter cold in Eastern Europe and parts of Russia and Ukraine induced no permanent crop damage.
China’s rapeseed remains semi-dormant and poised to perform well in the spring. The crop production region has been abundantly moist since planting and crops should have well developed root systems to support development through any short term bouts of dryness.
Water supply and soil moisture is also very good for the various sunseed, soybean and groundnut production areas across the nation. Planting conditions for the spring 2017 are expected to be favorable and field progress should advance normally.
SOUTHEAST ASIA OIL PALM
Weather conditions over the past few weeks have been favorable for most of oil palm crop produced in Malaysia and Indonesia. Rainfall has been consistently distributed, although some net drying occurred in parts of the region for a little while. Plenty of rain is expected to continue falling across the region in a routine manner to support favorable production potentials into February.
World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Comments regarding damage or the impact of weather on agricultural and energy as well as comments made regarding the impact of weather on the commodity and financial markets are the explicit opinions of World Weather, Inc. World Weather, Inc. cannot be held responsible for decisions made by users of the Corporation’s information in any business, trade or investment decision.
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